Office employment and job posting data paint different complexions on the U.S. economy. Which is more telling?

Employment in offices reached a record high in June 2023, increasing by 6.5% since March 2020, while office job postings have dipped by 21.1%. Overall, office job postings have decreased by 34.3% from the post-COVID high in April 2022, whereas office employment actually increased by 2.3%.
Job postings are best viewed as a forward indicator of future employment and a current indicator of office demand trends as employers continue to navigate competitive labor market conditions, increasing automation efforts and profitability concerns.
This job posting data is closely aligned with office leasing activity, which has posted a strong 68.0% correlation since Q1 2020—versus office employment at a 44.8% correlation—and declined by 38.2% from Q1 2020 to Q2 2023. This means that office job postings are currently the more telling metric when it comes to real estate conditions.

August 28, 2023